Aviation Forecasting: FAA Should Implement Additional Risk-Management Practices in Forecasting Aviation Activity by United States Government Account Office, Paperback
The FAA annually prepares forecasts of future aviation activity and uses these forecasts to help manage most of its $15 billion in annual spending. While forecasting...
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The FAA annually prepares forecasts of future aviation activity and uses these forecasts to help manage most of its $15 billion in annual spending. While forecasting is inherently uncertain, managing that uncertainty is essential to informed decisions.
GAO was asked to examine the accuracy of and FAA's use of two annual forecasts of aviation activity. This report discusses the accuracy of FAA's forecasts from 2004 through 2014 and strengths and limitations of FAA's consideration of risks in developing its forecasts. This report focuses on the use of the Aerospace and TAF forecasts to inform key operational and investment decisions. GAO compared these two forecasts to actual activity from 2004 through 2014 for the Aerospace forecasts and from 2010 through 2014 for the TAF forecasts and identified factors affecting that accuracy. GAO compared FAA's treatment of risk in developing forecasts to selected risk- management practices recommended by the Office of Management and Budget, GAO, and others.